Chana Price Outlook India: October 2026
A below-normal monsoon has left India's main chana belts short of soil moisture just as rabi sowing begins. Our October 2026 outlook covers the weather, acreage economics, imports and seasonal price patterns that will shape the chana (chickpea) market into 2027.
The main chana belts are short of moisture
The June–September monsoon ended below normal, and the main chana-growing regions are in deficit: Marathwada −39%, Rayalaseema −40%, North Interior Karnataka −31% and Vidarbha −27%. Uttar Pradesh and East Madhya Pradesh are the exceptions. Soil moisture at the end of September was clearly lower than a year ago across central India, and seasonal forecasts point to a drier October and November over southern and central India. These origins face a double hit: a weak monsoon followed by a dry post-monsoon period.
South at risk, North on track
In the Deccan (Marathwada, Vidarbha, North Karnataka and Rayalaseema), low soil moisture is likely to delay sowing and may shrink the area planted. In Maharashtra, Karnataka and West Rajasthan, sowing now depends on October rains. Further north, in Uttar Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat, soil moisture is adequate, and strong September rains could favour early sowing and good germination.
The economics do not favour chana
Chana production held steady at 8.85 MMT in 2025–26. Better yields (+3.1%) offset lower acreage (−2%), with Madhya Pradesh's area down 18%. For the coming season, the minimum support price for chana rose only 1.4%, against 6.7% for mustard, and per-hectare returns trail mustard almost everywhere. Chana is competing with wheat and mustard for rabi acreage from a weak position.
Imports fell sharply, with a small rebound
Desi chana imports fell 33% to about 1,007 KMT in 2025–26, while kabuli imports dropped almost 99%. Desi imports picked up again in April–July 2026, rising 155% to 71 KMT, but from a small base.
What past El Niño years show
In the three El Niño years we studied (2009, 2015 and 2023), chana prices rose 5–10% from July–September to October–December, then corrected in January–March: by 7.4% in 2010, 9.2% in 2016 and 4.0% in 2024, an average of about 7%. On that pattern, prices tend to stay firm through the October–December quarter, with any correction arriving from January onwards. We expect market prices to stay above MSP through 2026–27.